JAMS の次回選挙の案内来てたので速攻で投函した。なぜか勝手に帰属意識持ってるので、いろいろ学ぶところ多い。
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水曜日のダウンタウン，数理的にも計量的にもけっこうおもしれーと思うこと多々ある．たとえばこれ．芸人仲間の間である時から（松本人志が禁煙してから），芸人が禁煙とかサムいわーから肯定的意識に変化したらしい．まさにグラノヴェッターの閾値モデルがワークしそうだ．
こういう卑近な例だけでなく，閾値モデルは非典型的な家族，たとえば同棲や事実婚，LGBTに対する規範意識の変化をうまく説明してくれそうだ．あと，今日は微妙な雨模様だったんだけど，人はどのタイミングで傘をしまうのかとか．
実際に，計量的には Rindfuss たちが似たことをASRでやってますね．
Rindfuss, Ronald R., Minja Kim Choe, Larry L. Bumpass, Noriko O. Tsuya, 2004, “Social Networks and Family Change in Japan,” American Sociological Review, 69(6): 838-61.
Japan, unlike most Western countries, has not experienced several components of the second demographic transition, including cohabitation, widespread use of childcare centers, unmarried childbearing, and nonmarriage. Yet there is evidence that Japan is ripe for change in such family behaviors. This article examines a set of innovative questions related to knowing individuals who have engaged in these behaviors by type of relationship (sibling, other relative, friend, and coworker) respondent has to such individuals. We find that a large proportion of the Japanese population knows someone who has cohabited, used childcare, had a nonmarital birth, or plans to remain unmarried. This knowledge is patterned by both relationship domain and social structural variables. There is a strong positive association between knowing someone who has engaged in one of these behaviors and attitudes toward nontraditional family behavior, suggesting pathways by which micro-level interpersonal interactions may be linked to macro-level social change.
これもスキ．まさにFKモデルってかんじ．逆に，自身の階層認知にとどまらず，自身の肥満度の認知や顔面偏差値（っていうんですか？）なんか比較して，どれだとうまくFKモデルがもっともワークするのか，なんて問いは数理社会学者はたてるのかな．